Welcome to Plugging the Gap (my email newsletter about Covid-19 and its economics). In case you don’t know me, I’m an economist and professor at the University of Toronto. I have written lots of books including, most recently, on Covid-19. You can follow me on Twitter (@joshgans) or subscribe to this email newsletter here.
Last week I attended a faculty meeting at the University of Toronto where we were told what the current plans for a reopening of the University in the Fall were. We were told (well at least what I heard) that (a) the University expects that all staff, faculty and students will be vaccinated by September and (b) that scenarios being considered for the Fall include no relaxation or only modest relaxation of distancing measures especially on social distancing which mean that our classrooms are at quarter capacity and students cannot freely be on campus. Suffice it to say, I couldn’t see how (a) led to (b) according to, you know, logic.
I was one of those people who quite publicly railed on the University for being slow to shutdown in March and believed that all talk about reopening in Fall last year were fantasy. But that was all really a call to pay attention to forecasts of the pandemic when making decisions rather than presuming what is happening now will predict the future months hence and be a good basis for decision-making. Right now, Fall, thankfully, looks like it will be a lot better than Winter. So much so that surely that should be the default in our planning rather than the exception.
It turns out that I am far from alone in that opinion. Here is higher education specialist Alex Usher:
Let’s start by thinking about what current vaccination outlook is. We know that Canada is supposed to have 23 million doses from Moderna and Pfizer by the end of June – that means 11.5 million vaccinations. Even assuming 2 million of those doses go to essential care workers, that still leaves enough vaccines for everyone over 60 to be fully vaccinated by June. Now, while the over-60s only account for 20% of total cases, they account for 71% of hospitalizations and 96% of all deaths.
I can’t stress this enough: a COVID where the death rate is cut by 96% is an entirely different order of public health issue than the one we have faced for the last twelve months. Remember all those misguided souls (like those who signed the Great Barrington Declaration) who claimed COVID would be no worse than a mild flu if only we could protect the vulnerable? This was incredibly dangerous nonsense at the time because there was no way to do so. But, now, with the vaccine, there is.
OK, one might argue, but on the evidence of the initial roll-out, 23 million doses in the country doesn’t mean 23 million doses distributed. Well, it’s true that the roll-out to date hasn’t been brilliant and given who is in charge of it in Ontario, I expect we will have many not-so-good weeks to come. But look, its not as though provincial health systems have completely forgotten how to inject people. 10 million people in four months is just a regular flu season in Canada. There are some complications this time because of the double jab, and because there is a lot of concern about the “wrong people” getting the drug too early. But it should be handleable.
What Usher is saying is that it is a pretty reasonable assumption to think that in Canada we will reach our Summer vaccine goals. We may not but if you are taking bets, there is reason for optimism. To be sure, there are new variants and there are issues regarding long-Covid that means that fatalities aren’t the be-all and end-all. But still, the likely improvement in our generic situation is likely to be substantial.
So, now, ask yourself: given all this, why in God’s name would universities and colleges not be open in September? I am starting to see colleges and universities make decisions about the fall, and many of them (Lethbridge excepted) seem very cautious to me. And I get it: we’re still currently – and rightly – in a very defensive mode. But if we make decisions about September using a February mindset, we are setting ourselves up for some bad decision-making. The vast majority of students – 70-80% or so - are simply desperate to be back on campus, to be back with friends, to be in classes. They will be simply – and rightly – furious if we force them into another term of remote learning when the rest of the economy is open.
Now, I get it: my scenario is not current common wisdom. We’re all thinking we’re vulnerable, and right now, we are. But folks: skate to where the puck is going, not where it has been. I know professors are scared about going back to class now. But by September, damn near every professor will likely have had the jab: that’s a totally different world, and we need to envisage being in it when making decisions.
The broader point is this. Universities are planning on not being reopened in the Fall and that means that even if we should have good news in the interim, that will be hard to walk back from. Students and others are making plans. The alternative is that they plan on re-opening and should news be worse than expected, they are forced to not do that. In that case, we are back where we currently are. That is something we can do.
So there are two factors in favour of planning for reopening. The first is the evidence that the outlook will likely be favourable and reopening will be more than possible. The second focuses on option value. Put simply, planning on being closed, forecloses the possibility of being open whereas the reverse isn’t true. Both of these mean that we should surely be planning on something closer to normal for the next academic year.